The ace in the hole law

On March 13, 2010, in Leadership laws, by Neculai Fantanaru

At the game table, a game cannot be considered lost as long as you have one last card.

One dream, one burning desire did Mehmed II have: to greatly surpass the deeds of his grandfather, Bayezid, and his father's, Murad, who have proved Europe for the first time the military supremacy of the Turkish nation. And, in order to prove his real qualities of a good leader, a fact that could have quickly propelled him among the most popular and loved sultans, decided to conquer at any cost Byzantium, the last jewel of the empire of Constantine Dragases (Constantine XI Palaiologos).

Blinded by ambition, greedy of power, he built an army of almost 150,000 soldiers, calling under arms all the valid men of all the four corners of the Ottoman Empire. But Byzantium, which had extraordinarily resistant circular outer defense walls, foreseen with crenels and openings, protected by ditches of water, guarded by massive square towers, cannot be easily conquered at all. No city in Europe was better and heavier defended as Byzantium; those massive blocks of stone had defied all known war machines. Ram hits and projectiles thrown by the most powerful mortars and cannons of that time were made useless in front of those abrupt walls. Besides, Constantine, knowing very well what Mehmed was planning, in spite his restless messages of peace, immediately asked the help of the Christian world in Europe.

Beyond the starting hands

For strong walls, strong cannons. Thanks to the most ingenious and experienced cannon founder in the world at that time, a Romanian called Orban, by Mehmed's orders, in a very short time, some huge cannons were built, with a very long range, the stone projectiles of which had the power to destroy walls from one strike. An entire army, an entire nation, for two months has carried 20-30 such colossi to Byzantium. The battle begins. Everyday, the walls are shaken by countless projectiles, the fortifications are made a riddle. The Byzantines suffer.

But hope never let itself be awaited for too long, as you can see it exactly when you most need it. Help from Europe appears. Four huge ships, well armed, carrying a pretty large crew, loaded with all sorts of supplies, succeed in entering the safe harbor of Byzantium. At this moment, Mehmed realizes that his chances begin to fall more and more. In the coming weeks and months, more and more help will come in the aid of Byzantium and he will face more and more obstacles and, who knows, maybe he won't be able to conquer the city any more, and his dream will only remain a dream.

When the jackpot is huge, you either have good cards and control over them and you go further, or, if not, you withdraw

A powerful man, ambitious all the way, just like Mehmed, can be neither persuaded, nor intimidated by anyone or anything. Once he has set himself a goal, no matter how hard it would be to reach it, he doesn't quit easily, his attitude being ever more unshakeable, his will, ever more trenchant. For Mehmed, the bigger the jackpot, the greater the temptation to go further, the more he needs to risk everything precious for him, the more he hardens in order to win, even though the risks are too many and too high.

Controlled by ecstasy, just like a poker player who knows he's one cart short in order to win the game, Mehmed doesn't think that much and immediately and forcefully steps in.

This is what characterizes the most feared leaders – they don't tend to overburden themselves with any kind of hesitations, they get straight to the action, aiming straight at the heart, off hand, with no hesitation, all his opponents, annihilating any trace of resistance.

Check-Raise

There's nothing worse than wrongfully judging a fearless and capable man, a real player, who knows how to turn the result in his favor.

Mehmed knew he had only one chance to conquer  Byzantium, only if the four Christian ships would be immediately destroyed and sunk down. But his fleet couldn't enter the bay directly, since the Genovese city Galata, the neutrality of which he had to respect, guarded the entrance. The Christian ships could only be attacked from the inside bay, located beyond the Genovese territory. How could have he brought the fleet to the interior waters?

While joy and hope filled the hearts of those under siege, Mehmed devised a plan of such fantastic daringness that it would fully deserve to have a place in the history of wars, next to the most courageous feats of Hannibal and Napoleon.

His genius plan, that of transporting his fleet, the hundreds of ships, over the highlands, and in to the bay, was perfectly put to practice and ended in success. In only one night, in less than 10 hours, seventy ships were carried from one sea to another, over mountains and valleys, through vineyards, fields and forests.

The next day at dawn, the Byzantines, who did not consider in their plans such and absurd and impossible idea, were stunned; they couldn't understand how the miracle happened.

It was only at that key moment that both players, Constantine and Mehmed, knew precisely which of them would win the table – the one who played his last card best, the one who was the most considerate and efficient, the most cunning and nimble - namely Mehmed.

The winner is not the one who has the best cards, but the one who knows how to play best the last card

Victory is not won by the one who has the best cards, but by the one who knows how to play very well the cards he holds in his hands. I think that the conquest of Byzantium by Mehmed confirms this.

Mehmed didn't rely on hazard and he risked, just like a professional poker player, since risk, doubled by tenacity and ingenuity, is the greatest advantage of a poker player. He had an ace in the hole, namely a genius idea of getting out of the standstill and a great strategy to apply it. Only thanks to his special maneuver at the very last moment did he manage to do what no one else hadn't – the conquest of Byzantium.

Conclusion: With no doubt, a real leader doesn't want to know the bad taste of defeat, but only the ecstasy of victory. Tenacity and effort, the ability to respond quickly, cleverness and ingenuity are his most useful traits. But those who are not urged by a strong ambition and don't have a sharp mind won't be able to win the game called Leadership.

Having an ace in the hole, in this context, means having the ability to analyze situations and quickly having the right answer, always have other alternatives, even though they appear to be crazy and impossible, have the cunningness and courage to apply them in spite the apparent setbacks. The ace in the hole is always the surprise element for opponents, so you must make sure that you always have it on hand.

 

Note: Stefan Zweig - Orele astrale ale omenirii, Editura Muzicala, 1976.